Hurricane Rafael was the strongest November tropical cyclone in the Gulf of Mexico on record. It was tied with Hurricane Kate from 1985. Rafael was the 17th named storm, the 11th hurricane, and the 5th major hurricane of the season. It formed on November 4 from an area of low pressure created by a Central American gyre. Over the next two days, Rafael became more organized and turned into a hurricane on November 6 as it moved northwest toward Cuba. Favorable weather conditions helped Rafael quickly strengthen into a Category 3 major hurricane before it made landfall in Cuba. After weakening slightly over land, Rafael entered the Gulf of Mexico and strengthened again into a major hurricane on November 8. Later that day, unfavorable conditions, such as wind shear and cooler ocean temperatures, caused Rafael to weaken rapidly. It fell below hurricane strength and became a remnant low-pressure system on November 10. The storm’s circulation turned into a trough the next day.
In its early stages, Rafael caused heavy rainfall in parts of Central America and Colombia. Many people in Panama had to leave their homes after their houses were damaged, displacing more than 210 people. Five people died in Panama due to flooding, and one death was reported in Colombia. Two people died directly from the storm in Jamaica. Damage in Panama was estimated at about US$110 million. In Costa Rica, agricultural losses totaled at least ₡500 million (US$985,000). In Colombia, over 192,000 people were affected by flooding. Aon estimated that the storm caused at least US$150 million in losses in Colombia. In Cuba, more than 283,000 people evacuated before the storm, including 98,300 from Havana. Rafael’s winds caused a complete power outage across the island. In western Cuba, 12 inches (30 cm) of rain fell, leading to flooding and landslides. Officials reported that areas around Artemisa suffered the most damage, with over 3,000 homes damaged in Mayabeque and Artemisa provinces. In total, Rafael caused eight deaths and at least $1.35 billion in damage, with about $1.08 billion of that damage occurring in Cuba alone.
Meteorological history
On October 26, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) began watching the southwestern Caribbean for possible tropical development. Several days later, on November 1, a large area of low pressure formed over the southwestern Caribbean, linked to a weather pattern in Central America. Early on November 3, the system became more organized, but the rain clouds remained uneven. That afternoon, Air Force Hurricane Hunters collected data showing the system had a closed center, but the heavy rain clouds were not yet strong enough to be called a tropical depression. Because the storm could threaten Jamaica and the Cayman Islands, the NHC named it Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen. On November 4, thunderstorms gathered near the center, increasing airflow. Later that day, an Air Force Reserve plane confirmed the system had become Tropical Depression Eighteen, located about 205 miles (335 kilometers) southwest of Kingston, Jamaica. Six hours later, the depression grew into Tropical Storm Rafael and moved northwest, guided by high pressure in the western Atlantic and Florida.
By late November 4, the storm deepened and began shrinking as it passed southwest of Jamaica. Later that day, the storm quickly strengthened after forming a small wind core over warm waters in the northwestern Caribbean with weak wind shear. At midnight UTC on November 6, Rafael became a hurricane just south of Little Cayman, passing west of the island. It continued to grow stronger, forming an eye, and became a Category 3 major hurricane with 115 mph (185 km/h) winds that evening as it approached western Cuba. At 21:15 UTC, Rafael made landfall in Artemisa province, just east of Playa Majana. After hitting Cuba, Rafael weakened slightly and entered the southeastern Gulf of Mexico as a Category 2 hurricane before midnight UTC on November 7. Early on November 8, satellite images showed an eye had reformed, and Rafael reached its strongest point with winds of 120 mph (195 km/h) while located above the northernmost Yucatán Peninsula.
Later that afternoon, the storm turned westward and began to weaken due to stronger winds from the west and dry air. This trend continued, and Rafael was downgraded to a tropical storm later that day. The storm slowed as it moved around the western edge of a high-pressure ridge, curving northwestward and northward on November 9. Wind shear increased, exposing the storm’s center and pushing storms far to its northeast. Rafael continued to weaken, and by 12:00 UTC on November 10, it no longer had enough organized rain clouds to be called a tropical cyclone. It became a remnant low-pressure system drifting over the central Gulf. By 6:00 PM UTC, the remnants of Rafael faded into a low-pressure trough.
Preparations
On November 2, the Government of Panama issued a red warning for areas from Chiriquí to Veraguas. Panama’s emergency services asked residents and visitors to follow weather warnings from officials and warned about heavy rain and strong ocean waves. Yellow alerts, which mean a weather threat is possible, were issued for western parts of the country. Red warnings were also given for Colón, Coclé, and Kuna Yala. Schools were closed in five provinces, and nine emergency shelters were opened.
When the early sign of Hurricane Rafael was identified as a possible tropical cyclone, a tropical storm warning was issued for Jamaica. Two matches in the Jamaica Premier League, originally planned for November 4, were postponed. Some matches in the Manning Cup were also delayed because of the storm. The University of the West Indies shut down all clinics and non-emergency services due to the storm.
On November 3, when the early sign of Hurricane Rafael was labeled a possible tropical cyclone, a Hurricane Watch was issued for the Cayman Islands. The next day, the watch was changed to a Hurricane Warning. Because of the storm, all government schools and the University College of the Cayman Islands closed on November 5. Cayman Airways confirmed that their planes were secured. The Cayman Islands Regiment sent eight soldiers to Little Cayman and ten to Cayman Brac for the first time. Sandbags were provided to residents of Cayman Brac and Grand Cayman. Shelters were opened in Cayman Brac and Little Cayman. Several government offices closed in preparation for Rafael. The Cayman Islands’ Bankers Association shut all banks on November 5.
On November 4, a Hurricane Watch was issued for six eastern provinces of Cuba. In Camagüey and Las Tunas, a tropical storm warning was issued. Because of the storm’s expected effects, over 66,000 people left Guantánamo province. Flights were canceled, and boat travel between Batabanó and Nueva Gerona was stopped. Schools were closed in several provinces, and transportation services were halted in many towns in western Cuba, including Havana. Rafael approached as Cuba was still recovering from a country-wide power blackout and the damage caused by Hurricane Oscar, which hit eastern Cuba about two weeks earlier. More than 283,000 people evacuated before the storm, including 98,300 from Havana.
Rip current warnings were issued for much of the Gulf Coast in the United States.
On November 4, a tropical storm watch was issued for the Florida Keys, from the Dry Tortugas to the west of the Channel 5 Bridge, including Key West. On November 5, the watch was changed to a tropical storm warning. As a precaution, schools in Monroe County closed on November 6.
Impact
In Panama, rains from the early storm system called Rafael damaged many homes, displacing more than 1,097 people. About 100 people stayed in shelters. At least five people died, and two others were missing. More than 200 families were affected in Herrera and Los Santos Provinces. Damage in Panama was at least $110 million.
In Costa Rica, the storm interacted with the Pacific Intertropical Convergence Zone, causing floods. A bridge collapsed, and 42 people needed rescue in Guanacaste Province. Agricultural losses in Costa Rica were at least ₡500 million (US$980,000).
In Colombia, Rafael’s early storm system caused heavy rainfall in the Santa Marta area. Rockslides occurred, and several cars were swept away by floodwaters. Some homes were damaged, with two destroyed. One person had minor injuries. Many buildings were at risk of collapse. In La Guajira Department, one person drowned, and 192,465 people and 38,493 families were affected. Flooding damaged roads and homes. Officials requested 700 billion pesos (US$159 million) to help those affected. As of January 2025, damage in Colombia was estimated at US$150 million.
In Jamaica, officials said heavy rains before the storm caused a large landslide on November 3, isolating rural communities. Rain from Rafael blocked roads, with garbage and landslides causing disruptions. In Saint Catherine Parish, two people were found dead in a vehicle swept away by floods. Southern parishes received over 3 inches (76 mm) of rain. Flooding worsened in Troja district, breaking fords. The storm caused power outages. Damage to infrastructure and agriculture totaled J$1.27 billion (US$8 million).
In Cayman Brac, many trees and power lines were downed, and some structures and docks were damaged. Rainfall reached 280 mm (11 in) in Cayman Brac and 33 mm (1.3 in) in Grand Cayman. Winds reached 29 mph (46 km/h) in Grand Cayman. Storm rains caused power outages on Little Cayman and Cayman Brac. Grand Cayman had rough seas and flooding. Power lines and trees were downed on Little Cayman, and roads were covered with sand and debris. Multiple dive boats sank near Little Cayman. However, losses were not enough to trigger insurance payouts.
Rafael’s strong winds caused a power outage across Cuba. In western Cuba, 100–200 mm (3.9–7.9 in) of rain fell, with 218 mm (8.6 in) recorded in Bauta, causing floods and landslides. Artemisa suffered the most damage, with 2,825 homes, hospitals, schools, and service centers damaged. Nearly 40,000 acres of crops were lost. In Mayabeque, 441 homes were damaged, and agriculture suffered. Rafael passed 30 miles (48 km) west of Havana, with sustained winds of 44 mph (71 km/h) and gusts up to 71 mph (114 km/h). Flooding damaged neighborhoods in Centro Habana and Old Havana. Many homes and public buildings were damaged, trees were uprooted, and telephone poles fell. Damage totaled 25.8 billion pesos (US$1.08 billion).
Although Rafael did not reach the U.S. Gulf Coast, it created strong rip currents along the coast on November 9 and 10. The storm brought over 2 inches (51 mm) of rain to the Florida Keys and winds up to 53 mph (85 km/h). Some tree limbs fell, and minor power outages occurred. Street flooding caused road closures, but no major damage was reported.
In Louisiana and Texas, a weather front combined with weakening Rafael, bringing heavy rain. Flooding damaged highways and homes, and rising water stalled vehicles, requiring rescues. Damage in Louisiana totaled US$165,000, and in Texas, US$75,000. The same front caused flooding in Georgia and South Carolina, with 12 inches (300 mm) of rain falling in less than 24 hours. In South Carolina, two people died from freshwater flooding. However, these deaths and damages were not counted in Rafael’s official totals.